[SIGNAL BRIEF] Used EV and Leasing: EV lease wave: ~50% of 2023 EVs leased; Dec 2025 EV days supply 107; Q4 EV lesse

EV lease wave: ~50% of 2023 EVs leased; Dec 2025 EV days supply 107; Q4 EV lessees 41.3% went gas

S&P Global Automotive says the 2026 off-lease EV wave is arriving because roughly half of 2023 EV registrations were leased, effectively scheduling a maturity surge three years later. The timing is tricky: EV share of new registrations fell to 6.4% in December 2025 from 11.4% a year earlier, while EV inventory days supply rose to 107 from 99.

The report also flags a shift in what returning-to-market EV lessees buy after the September 2025 tax credit expiration. In Q4, 46.9% stayed in EVs but 41.3% moved to gas vehicles, nearly a 50-50 split. Lease households also cycle faster, with 60% returning to market in under 36 months, and show higher loyalty, with RTM brand loyalty at 64% versus 47% for purchase households.

What this means for dealers: Late-model used EV volume should build through 2026, so tighten turn targets and merchandising standards to avoid aged EV inventory. Use lease-end campaigns to keep customers in your store, and treat off-lease EVs as a repeat-traffic engine for service and F&I, not just a used-car problem.

Source: S&P Global Automotive Insights — https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2026/03/ev-lease-returns-impact

What this means for dealers: Late-model used EV volume should build through 2026, so tighten turn targets and merchandising standards to avoid aged EV inventory.

Source: S&P Global Automotive Insights