DGActual FY 2026 SAAR Forecast: 15.97M
Pull-forward demand is masking the correction ahead. DGActual projects full-year 2026 SAAR at 15.97M, with Q4 correcting to 15.30M as tariff-driven demand normalizes.
DGActual's full-year 2026 SAAR forecast is 15.97M units, built from an ECM-ARDL model on 89 quarters of FRED, BLS, and BEA data. The quarterly breakdown tells a different story: Q4 2026 projects at 15.30M on the Base scenario, a 1.0M correction from the current pace as tariff pull-forward demand normalizes. Sentiment is at its lowest since 1952. The gap between consumer confidence and vehicle sales pace is the widest on record. That spread has always closed.
Model: ECM-ARDL v2.2. HAC Newey-West standard errors. PSS bounds test F=81.70 (cointegration confirmed at 1%). OOS/IS RMSE ratio: 1.37. Adj R2: 0.917. Sources: FRED, BLS v2, BEA NIPA, J.D. Power, Cox Automotive, Edmunds.
