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# Mr. Dimons Next Cockroach Probably Isn’t Carvana - And Tricolor Isn’t Every Story
- URL: https://blog.dgactual.com/mr-dimons-next-cockroach-probably-isnt-carvana-and-tricolor-isnt-every-story/
- Published: 2025-10-22T17:35:49.000Z
- Updated: 2026-04-03T12:11:26.000Z
- Author: Daniel
- Tags: #Migrated-1775218279132, #sqs, #Import 2026-04-03 12:11

When Jamie Dimon warned about “one cockroach in the credit kitchen,” he was talking about hidden failures in the finance world (like a small auto lender collapsing). That triggered a flood of headlines asking: *Is Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) the next one?*

Here’s the straight talk: Carvana **is risky**, no doubt. But it’s **not the same** as the silent, off-balance-sheet lender that collapses overnight. It’s showing real improvement — yet the stakes are high and the margin for error is small.

## Where Carvana Stands Right Now

**What’s going well:**

- Sold over **143,000 vehicles** in Q2 2025, up about 41 % year-over-year. ([SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001690820/000169082025000310/ex99%5F1q22025.htm?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
- Revenue of **$4.84 billion** in Q2 2025, up \~42 % y/y. ([SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001690820/000169082025000310/ex99%5F1q22025.htm?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
- Net income of **$308 million** (net income margin \~6.4 %). ([SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001690820/000169082025000310/ex99%5F1q22025.htm?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
- Announced the expansion of its “Inspection & Reconditioning Center (IRC)” capability at the ADESA Long Island site, marking the **10th** such IRC integration in 2025\. ([Carvana](https://www.carvana.com/press/press-releases/carvana-brings-inspection-and-reconditioning-center-capabilities-to-adesa-long-island?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

**What you’ve got to keep an eye on:**

Profits are up, but **cash-flow conversion is lumpy** (the model is scaling, but timing/working capital remain risks).

- Older loan pools (vintages 2021-22) made when underwriting was looser still hang over the business.
- Leverage remains high and the model depends heavily on securitization/ABS markets staying open.
- **Insider behavior & regulatory flags:** Executives have been selling shares, states have raised complaints about titles/registration delays.
- With operational expansion (e.g., 100 jobs at the Long Island site) that adds cost and execution risk. ([Long Island Business News](https://libn.com/2025/10/08/carvana-expands-adesa-long-island-creates-jobs/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

## Translation: Why It Matters for Dealerships

When Carvana’s engine runs strong, they bid aggressively in the lanes - you’ll feel it as a dealer.

- When they stumble, pricing loosens, inventory flows shift and the market realigns.
- Their performance influences digital retail confidence, which impacts your lead-gen, buyer behaviour and “used car vs. new car” dynamics.
- The credit side is less visible in the showroom, but when Carvana’s loan engine sputters, the ripple reaches auctions, F&I margins, turn rates and floor planning.

## The Takeaway

Carvana **is not** a hidden cockroach waiting to jump out of the credenza, at least not *yet*. The company is scaling, showing profits, and executing. But here’s the fine print: **the market now expects near-flawless performance.** One mis-step (loan losses, funding squeeze, cash-flow miss) could flip this story.  
For you, the dealer, the used-car guy, the auction-roofer; watch Carvana like you watch inventory turn: not because you want it to fail, but because *how they move tells you how the market moves.*

> “The danger isn’t Carvana collapsing. It’s everyone *assuming* all success stories in auto retail must end that way.”

### What’s Next

- Q3 2025 results drop on **October 29, 2025** \- mark that. ([TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cvna/earnings?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))
- Look for updated cash-flow numbers, margins on new loans, and how Carvana talks about old vintage loan performance.
- Also keep an eye on stories around titles/registration or state-level compliance.

### Sources

Carvana Q2 2025 shareholder letter & press release: “We sold over 143,280 retail units… Revenue $4.84B…” ([SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001690820/000169082025000310/ex99%5F1q22025.htm?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

Carvana press release: “Carvana Brings Inspection and Reconditioning Center Capabilities to ADESA Long Island…” ([Carvana](https://www.carvana.com/press/press-releases/carvana-brings-inspection-and-reconditioning-center-capabilities-to-adesa-long-island?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

CBT News: “Marketing article – Carvana posts record Q2 results, lifts 2025 forecast…” ([CBT News](https://www.cbtnews.com/carvana-posts-record-q2-results-lifts-2025-forecast-amid-profit-surge/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

LIBN (Long Island Business News): “Carvana expanding ADESA Long Island, 100 new jobs…” ([Long Island Business News](https://libn.com/2025/10/08/carvana-expands-adesa-long-island-creates-jobs/?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))

MarketBeat/Tipranks: Earnings date for Q3 2025 & insights. ([TipRanks](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/cvna/earnings?utm%5Fsource=chatgpt.com))