> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://blog.dgactual.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # DARPI Week of September 13: Ten Straight Down Weeks, a Divided Fed, and the First Used-ICE Buy Board - URL: https://blog.dgactual.com/market-brief-september-14-2026/ - Published: 2026-09-14T12:14:51.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-14T12:14:51.000Z - Description: DARPI falls for a tenth straight week as incentive spending jumps and the Fed heads into a divided September meeting. Plus: the first Used-ICE Buy Board, an FSBO desk with only one real opportunity, and four new recalls covering over 430,000 vehicles. - Author: Daniel - Tags: Monday Brief, Market Intelligence JUMP TO SECTION [Overview](#overview) [Economy & Incentives](#economy) [DARPI](#darpi) [Purchase Picks](#picks) [FSBO Desk](#fsbo) [Trade & OEM Strategy](#trade) [Safety Desk](#safety) [Data Notes](#notes) Ten straight weeks. That is how long DARPI Near-New has now fallen without a single up week, and this week's read, 96.09, down another 0.36 points, is not a blip. It's the same story that's been building since July: buyers have leverage, dealers are discounting to move metal, and the used market is quietly absorbing a demand contraction that headline SAAR numbers haven't fully priced in yet. The Fed meets Wednesday with markets more divided than they have been in months, August incentive spending jumped to levels not seen in years, and Toyota, Volkswagen, and a fresh Canada tariff flare-up all point the same direction: OEMs are bracing for a smaller, harder market, and the used-retail data says they are right to. ## **Overview** This week's board: DARPI down for a tenth consecutive week, the retail-to-wholesale spread still negative at -1.66 (retail underpricing wholesale, a buyer's market signal), incentive spending running well above last year heading into a Fed meeting where economists and market pricing are not agreeing with each other, and two purchase-pick boards, the established Used-EV Buy Board and a new Used-ICE Buy Board built for the first time this week. FSBO desk shows one real opportunity, three anchored comps, and a genuine mileage-mix story worth understanding before you trust a headline discount. On the safety side, four new recalls hit the log this week, two logged in the last 24 hours alone, together covering north of 430,000 vehicles. ## **Economy & Incentives** The Fed meets this Wednesday, September 16, and for the first time in a while the two ways of reading market expectations do not agree. A Reuters poll of 93 economists published September 9 found 70 percent expect the Fed to hold its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, down from 90 percent in the August poll, with the remaining economists now calling for a quarter-point hike, which would be the first hike since July 2023\. Real-time market pricing has been running hotter than that poll: multiple rate-probability trackers this week showed hike odds well above the economist consensus, some above 80 percent, following Friday's Consumer Price Index report. That CPI report is the reason the odds moved. August CPI rose 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the used cars and trucks index itself up 0.4 percent for the month, even as the 12-month unadjusted change in used vehicle prices remained negative at negative 2.3 percent. Energy costs drove most of the monthly acceleration. For a dealer, the practical read is that rate relief is not the base case for financing costs into the fourth quarter, and payment conversations stay central to the sale. Against that backdrop, incentive spending is doing real work to keep volume up. J.D. Power's August 2026 forecast put average incentive spending at $3,384 per vehicle, up 5.9 percent year over year and equal to 6.6 percent of average transaction price, itself up 0.3 percentage points from August 2025\. The split matters: incentive spending on traditional internal combustion and hybrid vehicles rose 26.2 percent year over year to $3,140 per unit, while EV incentive spending actually fell 19.9 percent to $9,228 per unit, still nearly three times the ICE figure in dollar terms, but moving in the opposite direction. Average new-vehicle transaction price reached $45,563, up 2.0 percent year over year. NADA put the August SAAR at 16.8 million units, and a separate AutoGuide read placed it at 16.9 million against a 16.4 million baseline. Both reports carry the same caveat: incentives, not organic demand, did most of the work to get there. Total August volume ran around 1.388 million units. The signal to watch is not the headline pace, it's whether that pace survives if incentive spending has to pull back. One broadening signal worth noting on the demand side: A.M.-Online reported that used-car transactions rose across every dealer channel, franchised, independent, and used-car supermarket, for the first time in 2026, with used EV pricing also strengthening. That is a demand and merchandising signal more than a pricing one, and it is worth watching against DARPI's own softening read this week; the two are not necessarily in conflict; broader transaction volume can coexist with softer asking prices if sellers are pricing to move. ## **DARPI** Quick refresher for anyone reading cold: DARPI tracks used retail asking prices from dealer listings across 11 vehicle segments, indexed to 100 at June 8. - Near-New: 96.09, down 0.36 points week over week. Ten consecutive weeks without an up week. - Value cohort: 96.4. - DARVI (volume index): 97.82. - Market signal: demand contraction, meaning both listing volume and prices are softening together, not just prices alone. - Retail-wholesale spread: -1.66 points, retail still running behind wholesale on a rebased basis. ### **Biggest movers this week** - Luxury SUV: down 0.70 points, the largest move on the board. Top volume: 2024 BMW X5 (n=2,174, $52,867), 2024 Lexus RX (n=1,602, $49,826), 2024 Acura MDX (n=1,504, $42,583). - Electric Vehicle: down 0.62 points. Top volume: 2023 Tesla Model Y (n=2,063, $33,595), 2023 Tesla Model 3 (n=1,999, $27,898), 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E (n=1,900, $30,603). - Fullsize SUV: down 0.54\. Top volume: 2023 Chevrolet Tahoe (n=4,263, $52,360), 2024 Ford Expedition (n=3,263, $43,674). - Full Pickup: down 0.63\. Top volume: 2023 Ford F-150 (n=17,516, $40,878), 2024 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 (n=10,714, $41,446), 2024 Ford F-150 (n=10,202, $44,096). ## **Purchase Picks** Two boards this week, and they are built on genuinely different methodologies, which we want to be upfront about rather than let the visual similarity imply they're the same measurement. ### **The Used-EV Buy Board** This board compares two dated snapshots, August 14 and September 13, and ranks on the actual change in sold count alongside inventory change, not turn ratio alone (a rising ratio can just mean a dealer stopped restocking, so raw sold-count direction is checked first). ![The Used-EV Buy Board, September 13, 2026](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/09/ev_board.jpeg "The Used-EV Buy Board, September 13, 2026") The Used-EV Buy Board, September 13, 2026 Lead pick: 2023 Tesla Model 3, the only cohort pairing scale near 2,000 active units with the fastest turn and sales up 17 percent. Cleanest “ahead of the ask” signal: 2026 Chevrolet Silverado EV, dealers added 3 percent more units, moved 47 percent more trucks, and crossed a 1.00 turn ratio. ### **The Used-ICE Buy Board (new this week)** We do not yet have a 30-day-old baseline for gas and diesel inventory the way we do for EVs, and MarketCheck has no endpoint that can reconstruct historical sold counts retroactively. Rather than wait or fake an equivalent, this board ranks 108 model-year cohorts (2022 through 2025, each queried individually, minimum 500 active units) on median days at the current listing, a single-snapshot read, not a trend. Every figure carries its model year, no bare model name is used. ![The Used-ICE Buy Board, September 13, 2026](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/09/ice_board.png "The Used-ICE Buy Board, September 13, 2026") The Used-ICE Buy Board, September 13, 2026 **Fastest turning:** 2025 Mazda CX-5, 20 days median on 4,682 active units. 2024 Mazda CX-5 close behind at 22 days. **Slowest turning:** 2025 Nissan Altima, 81 days median on 9,556 active units, the single largest gap between one model year and its own nameplate's typical pace anywhere on the board this week. That is a specific-year problem, most likely a mix or pricing issue tied to the 2025 refresh, not a broader Altima or Nissan story. A companion hybrid board remains on hold; see the data notes at the end of this brief. ## **FSBO Acquisition Desk** Quick definition for new readers: FSBO means “for sale by owner,” a private seller, not a dealership. Every comparison below is mileage-matched on both sides, meaning we only compare private-seller and dealer listings within the same 20,000 to 60,000 mile band, because a private seller's higher-mileage car being cheaper than a dealer's lower-mileage car isn't a pricing signal, it's a mileage signal. | Model (cohort) | Matched spread | Matched sample (n) | Signal | | ------------------- | -------------- | ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------ | | Honda CR-V | \-$2,496 | 9 | Opportunity (thin sample, watch before acting) | | Tesla Model Y | \-$1,794 | 49 | Opportunity | | Nissan Rogue | \-$1,070 | 15 | Opportunity | | Honda Accord | +$294 | 16 | Mileage mix (raw discount vanishes once matched) | | Toyota Camry | +$1,502 | 17 | Anchored | | Jeep Grand Cherokee | +$2,774 | 19 | Anchored | | Toyota RAV4 | +$2,937 | 17 | Anchored | | Ford F-150 | +$3,635 | 109 | Anchored | Only Tesla Model Y clears the full opportunity bar (matched n of at least 10 and a matched spread below -$500). Honda CR-V's -$2,496 spread is real direction but sits on a thin 9-car matched sample, worth watching, not yet worth acting on. The other five are anchored: private sellers are actually pricing at or above dealer retail once mileage is matched, the opposite of the popular assumption that driveway deals are always cheaper. ## **Trade & OEM Strategy** Toyota's new CEO, Kenta Kon, is pushing to simplify parts and vehicle specifications to lower the company's breakeven volume, a direct response to a smaller, more volatile demand environment rather than a bet that volume snaps back (Automotive News). For dealers, that points toward tighter trim and options complexity over time, which affects allocation planning and parts continuity on current-generation vehicles. Volkswagen has earmarked roughly 16 billion euros for job cuts and possible plant closures as part of a broader restructuring (Reuters). Combined with the Toyota move, two of the industry's largest global manufacturers are now both openly restructuring around a lower demand baseline in the same week, not just cutting costs opportunistically. Separately, the U.S.-Canada tariff relationship flared up again this week, with renewed pressure on auto-parts supply chains (NPR). Parts continuity risk is worth watching alongside the Toyota simplification story above, both point the same direction for service and parts departments over the next two to three quarters. ## **Safety Desk** Four new recalls logged this week, two of them in the last 24 hours: - Ford F-150 (2023-2027), campaign 26V578000: approximately 223,500 vehicles. Fuel tank may be improperly secured and leak or detach while driving, a road hazard, stall, and fire risk. Service lane opportunity: schedule fuel-tank strap inspections and replacements now, before owner notices land. - Toyota C-HR battery electric vehicle (2026), campaign 26V570000: 8,521 vehicles. A software error may overcharge the battery and shut down the electric drive system, causing loss of drive power. Reserve EV-trained technician capacity for the ECU update. - Jeep Grand Cherokee, Grand Cherokee L, Wagoneer, and Grand Wagoneer (2024-2026), campaign 26V559: 201,976 vehicles. A software issue may cause the tire pressure monitoring system to fail to detect underinflation. Substantial VIN-outreach opportunity, pair with tire and safety inspections. - Toyota C-HR EV, campaign 26V570 (initial filing, same underlying issue as above): 8,521 vehicles, logged September 10 ahead of the formal September 13 NHTSA posting. ## **Sources** Automotive News, Reuters, NPR, NHTSA recall database, Reuters economist poll (September 9), J.D. Power August 2026 forecast, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index (August 2026, released September 11), NADA.org, AutoGuide via Yahoo Finance, A.M.-Online. DARPI and FSBO figures from DGActual's own weekly index pull, MarketCheck API, dealer and private-seller active listings, September 13, 2026. Full interactive dashboard at data.dgactual.com. Dealer reputation data at reviews.dgactual.com. ## **Data Notes** A correction and a disclosure, both in the interest of not overstating what the data shows this week. **DARPI baseline sample size:** this week we checked whether every segment could show a clean move versus the June 8 baseline, and found the baseline row itself has a sample-size field that never populated correctly at launch (stored as zero units across all 11 segments, not just the previously known Fullsize Car gap). Every week since June 8 is fine, it's specifically the origin point that's unreliable for a vs-baseline claim. We are not publishing any segment-level “versus June 8” figure until that's re-anchored, and we'd rather tell you that than quietly paper over it. **Hybrid Buy Board:** held back for technical reasons. Our data provider's hybrid classification field is not returning usable results this week, so we cannot yet isolate hybrid trims with confidence. We are not publishing hybrid figures until that is fixed.