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# The Market Is Splitting in Two: Hybrids Up, EVs Down | Week of October 5, 2026
- URL: https://blog.dgactual.com/market-brief-october-5-2026/
- Published: 2026-10-05T16:49:11.000Z
- Updated: 2026-10-05T16:49:11.000Z
- Description: DARPI Near-New slipped to 95.03, thirteen straight down weeks. September payrolls grew just 29,000 while GM and Ford's EV sales collapsed and hybrids surged, a verified FSBO screen found three real driveway discounts, and two big recalls are worth planning around.
- Author: Daniel
- Tags: Monday Brief, Market Intelligence

JUMP TO SECTION

[Overview](#overview) [Economy & Jobs](#economy) [Rates & Wages](#rates) [DARPI](#darpi) [FSBO Desk](#fsbo) [Trade & OEM](#trade) [Safety Desk](#safety) 

The U.S. economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, well short of the roughly 90,000 economists expected. Unemployment climbed to 4.2 percent, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That same week, Ford, GM and Toyota all reported their third quarter sales. GM's EV sales collapsed 62 percent and Ford's fell 80.2 percent. Toyota grew almost entirely on hybrids, up 28.5 percent. Three different companies, one shared story: the market is quietly splitting into a hybrid lane and an EV lane, and dealers who treat them as the same business are going to misread their own lots this winter.

## **Overview**

Here is the whole board before we open the hood. DARPI, our weekly read on used retail asking prices, fell again this week: thirteen straight down weeks. Compact cars led the slide. Nationally, hiring slowed and the automakers split hard on hybrids versus EVs, which the two charts below make easy to see. Our FSBO (for sale by owner) desk, which checks private-seller listings against dealer prices, found three real driveway discounts. The other five fell apart or turned into price floors once mileage was matched. Two recalls are worth planning around on the service drive, including a 4 million-vehicle steering fix at Volkswagen Group. And the SAAR model, our forecast for the pace of new-vehicle sales, now projects 16.44 million for the fourth quarter, down from a third quarter that closed at 16.65 million.

## **Economy & Jobs**

Start with the jobs number, because it sets the tone for everything else this week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls up just 29,000 in September. The Reuters poll of economists expected roughly 90,000\. August's gain got revised down to 133,000\. Unemployment rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent. It is a real cooling, not a crash, and it lands right on the heels of the Fed's first rate hike in three years, which took the benchmark rate to a 3.75 to 4.00 percent range.

Here is the part that should actually change how you read your own showroom traffic. CME Group's FedWatch tool now puts the odds of another hike at the Fed's late-October meeting at just 13 percent. A week earlier, that number was 69 percent. The market read a weak jobs report as a reason the Fed backs off, not a reason to worry.

Then the OEM sales landed the same week, and together with the jobs number they tell a sharper story. See the Hybrids Up, EVs Down chart below for the breakdown. The short version: GM's EV lineup collapsed, Ford's EVs fell even harder, and Toyota and Honda both grew on the strength of hybrids. Nobody's EV program is thriving right now except where it is bundled with a hybrid story that gives buyers an exit ramp from range anxiety. One backdrop worth keeping in view: gasoline averaged $4.43 a gallon in September, up from $3.20 a year earlier, per AAA as cited by Reuters. Sales data alone can't prove gas prices drove the hybrid shift, but it is the obvious suspect.

![Hybrids Up, EVs Down: Q3 2026 U.S. sales percent change by model](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/10/oem_card_hybrid_vs_ev.png)

## **Rates & Wages**

![The Rates and Wages Board: Treasury yields, mortgage rate, wage growth and inflation](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/10/oem_card_rates_board_v2.png)

The Fed's benchmark rate sits at 3.75 to 4.00 percent after last month's hike, but the rate that actually sets a car payment or a mortgage lives somewhere else. The board above shows it. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5 percent, and the 30-year mortgage rate just jumped to 7.28 percent. When long-term borrowing costs run well above the Fed's number, the long-term rate is the one dealers should watch.

On wages: average hourly earnings rose 3.0 percent year over year in September. Consumer prices in August were up 3.35 percent from a year earlier. The months don't line up perfectly, but the direction is clear: the typical paycheck is losing a little ground to prices. Not a lot, but enough to help explain why higher car payments are showing up as affordability pressure rather than confident buying.

## **DARPI**

DARPI tracks used retail asking prices from dealer listings across 11 vehicle segments, indexed to 100 at June 8\. Near-New fell to 95.03 this week. The index is down 0.29 points from last week and 4.97 points since the June 8 baseline. It is also thirteen straight weeks of decline, the longest stretch since we started tracking. The Value cohort told a similar story, down 0.23 points to 95.77.

The retail-wholesale spread widened to negative 2.72 points this week from negative 2.43 the week before. The spread is the gap between DARPI's retail asking-price read and the Manheim wholesale index, rebased to the same June 8 start. Retail asking prices are falling faster than wholesale values, which is exactly what you would expect in a market where dealers are discounting to move metal rather than holding firm on price.

There is a second, independent way to check this. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks used-car prices in the Consumer Price Index, and its August reading was down 2.3 percent from a year earlier. New-vehicle prices in the same index were up 0.6 percent. Different data, different method, same direction as our index: used is softening while new holds firm.

Compact cars did the most damage this week, down 0.76 points. The three biggest listings behind it are the 2024 Toyota Corolla, Nissan Sentra and Honda Civic, with average asking prices running from $18,373 for the Sentra to $25,495 for the Civic. Fullsize Pickup and Minivan each fell 0.34 points.

## **FSBO Desk**

FSBO means for sale by owner, a private seller listing directly rather than through a dealership. Every comparison below runs both sides through the same mileage band, so a private seller with a beat-up, high-mile car isn't getting credit for a discount that is really just a worse car. Four outcomes, in plain English:

- OPPORTUNITY: a real, mileage-matched discount, backed by at least 10 comparable private listings and a gap of more than $500 below dealer retail. Worth a driveway look.
- ANCHORED: the private seller is pricing at or above dealer retail even after you match mileage. No real discount here.
- MILEAGE MIX: the raw, unmatched discount looks big on paper, then disappears once you control for mileage. The private sellers just had higher-mile cars.
- NEAR PARITY: the honest fourth answer. The gap is small either direction and doesn't clear the bar for a real signal.

![FSBO Desk: mileage-matched private-seller price gap versus dealer retail, by model](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/10/oem_card_fsbo_desk.png)

Three real opportunities this week, all 2022 to 2025 cohorts: the Tesla Model Y, the Honda CR-V and the Honda Accord. The Model Y has the deepest matched gap, and its private listings have sat far longer than dealer listings, 127 days at the current listing versus 19\. The CR-V only just clears the 10-listing minimum, so treat it as the thinnest of the three.

Now the part the headline numbers hide. The Nissan Rogue and Toyota Camry both look like bargains on the raw numbers, with private sellers apparently $1,608 and $1,450 cheaper. Match the mileage and both flip: private sellers are actually $269 and $779 above dealer retail. Those cars were just driven more. The Ford F-150, Toyota RAV4 and Jeep Grand Cherokee never looked cheap at all, and the F-150 is the loudest example, with private sellers still $4,841 above dealers after matching. If you are hunting a driveway deal on any of these five, you are hunting in the wrong place this week.

## **Trade & OEM**

Nissan and Infiniti had the most interesting quarter of any brand this week, and the headline number hides the real story. Nissan Group's total sales rose just 1.4 percent, but that number blends two very different stories. Retail sales, the ones that actually matter for dealer health, rose 7.8 percent. Rental fleet sales, which Nissan has been deliberately walking away from, fell 45 percent. See the scoreboard chart below for the brand-by-brand picture.

Nissan says that is 19 straight months of year-over-year retail growth, carried by trucks and SUVs. Frontier, Rogue and Armada retail sales all grew double digits. Cars went the other way: Nissan's car sales fell 21 percent, with the Versa down 95.4 percent after being discontinued. That lines up with our own compact car weakness this week, where the Sentra is one of the three biggest listings behind the DARPI drop, though we aren't claiming one caused the other.

Infiniti is the quieter headline. The brand grew 20.4 percent, its best quarter since 2020, led by the QX60, QX65 and QX80\. Keep it in proportion: Infiniti is still under 7 percent of Nissan Group's quarterly volume. The next catalyst is the 2027 Nissan Rogue Hybrid, due at dealerships in November.

![Who Grew, Who Shrank: Q3 2026 U.S. automaker sales percent change](https://storage.ghost.io/c/99/c9/99c9791b-bee0-4e16-950a-32c6472afab3/content/images/2026/10/oem_card_brand_scoreboard.png)

The rest of the board rhymes with the hybrid story above. Hyundai's hybrid sales rose 35 percent in the quarter, Kia set a Q3 record, and Stellantis split hard between Ram and Jeep. These are the brands' own reported numbers, not an independent audit.

Volvo pulled its full-year sales and cash-flow guidance on October 2, citing the outlook in China and a slow U.S. rebound. Global Q3 deliveries fell 11 percent to 141,609 vehicles, and the stock hit a record low in Stockholm trading the same day. It is Volvo's second guidance withdrawal in eighteen months, which says less about one bad quarter and more about how unpredictable the next year looks even to the automakers living inside it.

Nissan also laid out a reshoring target, as reported on September 28\. It wants 80 percent of the vehicles it sells in the U.S. built here by 2030, up from 65 percent today. It says the shift already cut its tariff exposure by $2.3 billion last fiscal year. It is the clearest number yet on what reshoring is worth to an automaker's bottom line.

## **Safety Desk**

Two recalls worth planning around. The bigger one: Volkswagen Group is recalling roughly 4 million vehicles worldwide across Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT and Skoda, model years 2013 through 2024\. A steering-system fastening bolt can corrode and fracture from water and road-salt exposure, which can cause steering failure. A large base of vehicles will likely need inspection, which is a real opportunity to get ahead of it with outreach and parts planning rather than waiting for owner letters to drive walk-ins.

Closer to home, campaign 26V607 covers 23,677 model year 2026 Land Rover Range Rover Sport SUVs. The issue is a powertrain control module that can cause a sudden loss of drive power. Smaller volume, but the kind of fix that turns one service visit into a full multipoint inspection if the lane is set up to catch it.

## **Sources**

Sources: [Reuters, September jobs report, October 2](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-job-growth-slows-sharply-september-unemployment-rate-rises-42-2026-10-02/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [CNBC, GM and Toyota Q3 2026 U.S. sales](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/us-auto-sales-q3.html?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Detroit News, Ford Q3 2026 U.S. sales](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2026/10/02/ford-sales-drop-6-6-in-q3-as-escape-corsair-phaseouts/92054131007/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Nissan USA Newsroom, Q3 2026 sales release](https://usa.nissannews.com/en-US/releases/nissan-remains-the-fastest-growing-mainstream-brand-in-the-us-for-13-consecutive-months-and-records-19-consecutive-months-of-year-over-year-retail-sales-growth?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Autoblog, Nissan and Infiniti Q3 model detail](https://www.autoblog.com/news/nissan-cars-are-on-a-nosedive-but-suvs-and-trucks-are-surging?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Hyundai Motor America, September and Q3 2026 sales](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hyundai-motor-america-reports-record-breaking-september-2026-and-q3-sales-302895757.html?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Detroit News, Stellantis Q3 2026 U.S. sales](https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/chrysler/2026/10/01/stellantis-sales-decrease-slightly-in-q3-as-ram-rises-jeep-sinks/92041623007/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Car Dealership Guy News, Nissan U.S. production target](https://news.dealershipguy.com/p/nissan-targets-80-u-s-production-by-2030-as-automaker-expands-hybrid-push?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Reuters, Volvo Cars guidance withdrawal, October 2](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/volvo-cars-warns-weaker-sales-cash-flow-2026-10-02/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [TechTimes, Volvo guidance history, October 2](https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328496/20261002/volvo-cars-pulls-2026-guidance-china-sales-crater-us-recovery-lags.htm?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [Automotive News, Volkswagen Group steering recall](https://www.autonews.com/volkswagen/ane-vw-recalls-4-million-cars-steering-system-0926/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [WBIW, NHTSA recall report, September 28](https://www.wbiw.com/2026/09/28/nhtsa-issues-new-safety-recalls-for-major-automakers-rvs-and-commercial-vehicles/?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [FRED, 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, October 1](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [FRED, 30-year mortgage rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US?ref=blog.dgactual.com); [FRED, used and new vehicle CPI](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SETA02?ref=blog.dgactual.com). Dashboard: [data.dgactual.com](https://data.dgactual.com/?ref=blog.dgactual.com). Dealer reviews: [reviews.dgactual.com](https://reviews.dgactual.com/?ref=blog.dgactual.com).